Times of india dt.19/11/10
‘Rising Temperature Will Increase The Productivity Of Rice, Maize And Coconut In Coastal Andhra In The Next Two Decades’
TIMES NEWS NETWORK
Hyderabad: After a series of natural calamities that wreaked havoc on the state in the last two years, a major government study has concluded that Andhra Pradesh will be a major beneficiary of the climate change that will take place in the country in the next 20 years.
Commissioned by the Union environment and forests ministry, the study titled ‘Climate Change and India: A 4x4 Assessment-A Sectoral and Regional Analysis for 2030s’ was conducted by Indian Network of Climate Change Assessment which comprised 120 institutions and over 220 scientists and the report was released by the ministry last Tuesday.
The study focused on the four climate sensitive regions of India, namely, the Himalayan, Western Ghats, Coastal and North-Eastern region. The four key sectors that were taken up were agriculture, water, natural ecosystem & biodiversity, and health. Of these, AP is slated to considerably gain in the agriculture and health sectors.
As per the study, the temperature in 2030 in comparison to the temperature in the 1970s in the eastern coastal region will increase by 1.6 degrees Celsius to 2.1 degrees Celsius. By 2030, the number of rainy days in the coastal region including AP is likely to decrease by 1-5 days, while the intensity of rainfall is likely to increase between 1 mm to 4 mm per day. With regard to increase in rainfall, the eastern coastal region is likely to see an increase of annual rainfall between 0.2 to 4.4 per cent. While the study predicted that the cyclonic disturbances in both the coasts will decrease by 2030, it cautioned that they would be more intense.
This warming of the climate and increase in precipitation over the next two decades will work to the advantage of Andhra Pradesh by increasing the productivity of rice, maize and coconut, the major crops of the state’s coastal region, the study held.According to the report, the changes in the weather are conducive to fertilization in the major crops. As for rice, the yield will increase by 10 per cent throughout the coastal region while the rise in north Andhra Pradesh will be less than 5 per cent.
As far as maize crop is concerned, the study predicts that the climate change will adversely affect most of the 9,000-km long coast of the country, but benefit most of the coastal districts in the state. While the changes will lead to a much higher projected yield loss of irrigated maize between 15 and 50 per cent, the yield loss of rain-fed maize will be about 35 per cent. “In some districts of coastal Andhra Pradesh, rain-fed maize yields are likely to increase by 10 per cent,” the study said.
With regard to the coconut crop, the study predicted a 10 per cent increase in coconut yield in north-coastal Andhra but said the yield in other coastal Andhra districts, Orissa, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka will be adversely affected by about 40 per cent.
For AP, an important benefit with regard to the climate change is in the health sector. According to the study, the rise in temperature over the next two decades will become unfavourable for the spread of malaria, which kills thousands of people in the state every year. “In southern coastal districts of AP, the transmission window for the malaria parasite will be only 4-6 months in 2030 in comparison to 7-9 months in the baseline scenario of 1970,” the study said, adding that this would mean that the chances of getting infected by the parasite will drastically fall in the north coastal part which bears the brunt of the disease every year
No comments:
Post a Comment